Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Lockdown cannot last forever - is mass civil disobedience on the horizon?

Personally, I am dealing with lockdown as well as a single person in isolation with zero social contacts for 2.5 months can - it's disorienting and dystopic, to be sure. But I am able to work by telecommuting, unlike most people, and I have what I need to survive and minimally entertain myself - I feel a bit like Gus the Polar Bear from the central park zoo, stuck in a confined habitat with no alternative on the horizon, but with access to food and water and basic necessities, and making the best of an intolerable situation.
Having said that, I also realize that nothing I care about will be coming back any time soon, whether or not we stay on lockdown. Music won't be back for a long time, and neither will sports or international travel. So for me, whether or not I can go to the book store or sit 6 feet away from someone in a bar or restaurant (what the hell is the point of that, when the only reason to go to a bar is to be social?!), the dystopia is virtually guaranteed to last an unacceptably long time.
That said, based on what I hear from friends and family, not to mention what we can all plainly see in social media (if you get out of your bubbles), I do not believe that Americans will agree to stay on government-imposed lockdown much longer, nor will they submit to a second lockdown, should cases start to rise again, despite the consequences and the risks.
The economic and psychological consequences are simply unacceptable to an enormous swath of American society, and people will be willing to take the risk of catching a nasty virus, and even to accept that it means a lot of people of advanced years, and those with pre-existing conditions will die a bit prematurely. Nobody is happy about that, but the virus is part of nature, and nature will take its toll.
Flattening the curve is about controlling the rate of infections, not about preventing them, after all. And the psychological and economic costs are becoming unacceptable to many. Government cannot impose its will indefinitely. And the public have been very good sports in trying to do their part to slow the spread of this virus. But at some point you have to say "fuck it", as despite our best efforts, the virus is everywhere now, and there really isn't any possibility of eliminating it until a vaccine or cure is available, and that is not going to happen in a time-frame that people are going to find acceptable.
I am fine with staying in my apartment and having groceries and other goods delivered, as I have a salary, and can work from home. I have to accept the abhorrent reality that even if people refuse to continue to "shelter in place", Madison Square Garden won't be open for hockey, there will be no orchestras or chamber music ensembles, and international travel won't be a practical option with governments around the world continuing to flex their atrophying muscles by imposing quarantine conditions on arrivals from abroad. Even if we end "shelter in place" tomorrow, my life won't be any better as the things I love involve crowds and airplanes.
I am not one of the people clamoring for a return to barber shops (my last haircut was more than 3 years ago anyway) or socially distanced restaurants or bars (social distancing defeats the entire purpose of going to such places). But as an objective observer, with lots of friends on all sides of the political spectrum, I just don't believe America will agree to go along with government-imposed lockdowns for much longer, even if it puts grandma at risk.